Reactions on National Overreaction Day

Junior is back. Danica is awesome. And Kevin Harvick will battle Kasey Kahne for this year’s Daytona 500.

Some of this might turn out to be true, of course, but even though it’s tempting, I don’t think we can necessarily infer it from Saturday’s events at the Daytona International Speedway. (The late, great David Poole always told me this was "National Overreaction Day.")

We don’t have much to go on, at this point, so it’s not surprising we want to extrapolate the rest of the season from our first day of action. But this is Daytona, a unique animal with little relationship to any other track—except maybe Talladega, and even then there are significant differences.

There are some things we can learn, however, from Daytona 500 qualifying, the ARCA Lucas Oil Slick Mist 200, and this year’s Budweiser Shootout, as long as we know where to look.

Daytona Qualifying: Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. took the front row for the Daytona 500. That’s a nice accomplishment, but cars can be fast by themselves at Daytona and still not race well. There’s plenty of grip on your qualifying run, but during the race handling will quickly come into play. And some cars just don’t draft as well as others even if they’re fast on a solo run. Starting position also doesn’t mean a lot either, although a top pit box could be important if there’s a late stop at the end of the race.

But let’s not discount the session entirely. We need to remember that this is Hendrick Motorsports, so we can add a great engine package to whatever advantages we think they already have. Dale Jr. has enough of a reputation as a plate racer that he should have plenty of help during the race with a strong power plant. And if this was the first test of the revamped, we’re-all-in-this-together 5/88 shop, they passed with flying colors.

On the flip side, Front Row Motorsports has three guaranteed starting spots for the Daytona 500 and engines from Roush-Yates . . . but they were slow as molasses in qualifying—about 3 seconds off the pace. Ruh-roh.

Danica’s Debut: Let’s not kid ourselves, this race was a baby step for The Danica. ARCA racing isn’t Cup racing, or even Nationwide or Truck racing, and by all rights she should have had a pretty stout machine, perfectly capable of running up front.

But if this was only a baby step, Danica did just about as well as she could have. She spent the first part of the race getting used to the car on the bottom of the track. Later she made a great save after getting knocked into the grass by Nelson Piquet Jr. And then she had to race her way back to the front, ending up 6th. Other than challenging for the win, she couldn’t have done too much better. Overall she appeared to have good car control and a good feel for racing a stock car. We’ll find out next Saturday when she makes her Nationwide debut just how close she can get to the edge consistently.

The Shootout: This race may not tell us much about any other track, but it did give us a tiny glimpse of what we might see in the 500. Kevin Harvick’s win in last year’s Bud Shootout didn’t lead to a stellar season, or a 500 win, but if you were looking for verification that Harvick knows what he’s doing on a plate track, the 2007 Daytona 500 champ gave it to you once again. In plate racing you gotta have the car, you gotta have the instincts, and you usually need a bit of good fortune as well.

The Roush-Yates engines looked pretty strong, and Kasey Kahne definitely enjoyed his new Ford power plant, driving to a second place finish with it. Having a good engine certainly makes it a bit easier to control your fate at Daytona because it makes it easier to find friends out on the racetrack. But the drivers and crew chiefs still have to make the right moves at the end. After leading pretty much the entire first segment, Carl Edwards ended up 17th.

When you consider the tires strategy at the end of the Shootout, it’s pretty clear that handling will be a huge factor in the 500. If the cars slip and slide around during the night, things should be even tougher during the day. Every chance they get most teams will likely look to get at least two tires.

The bigger plate opening also seemed like it made it a bit tougher to pass the leader, making track position a touch bigger than it usually is at a plate race.

All in all, it was a great way to start the 2010 season, but most of what actually comes to pass is anybody’s guess.

• 1 Comment
• NASCAR, Daytona, Budweiser Shootout, Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr., danica patrick, Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne

The "Vanilla" Gene

For the first time since 2005—the last year he didn’t actually win it—the media have made Jimmie Johnson the favorite to win this year’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.

As I said in my blog earlier this week, I couldn’t agree more. But after listening to sports psychologist Jack Stark on today’s (Friday, February 5th) Rowdy podcast, I started to wonder why.

What makes Johnson a once-in-a-generation, maybe once-in-a-lifetime, talent behind the wheel?

How, in a sport predicated on putting a 3400 pound stock car right on the edge, at tremendous speeds, lap after lap, mile after mile, season after season, can one driver consistently deliver both speed and safety, wins without wrecks?

What allows him to dominate NASCAR’s playoffs for four seasons in a row? Especially when his own prodigiously talented teammates have access to the same equipment, same information, and same advantages he does.

And why, when every other driver endures his share of bad luck moments, does Jimmie Johnson seem to have so few?

As we say time and again on Rowdy, this sport is clearly about more than just the driver, but after listening to our interview with Stark, I think Johnson’s ability to put his car on the edge, consistently, without going over must come from a unique ability to put himself on a similar edge.

There’s a very narrow mental and physiological band, according to Stark, wherein elite athletes realize peak performance. In this “zone” there’s enough pressure, enough competitive fire, to generate maximum effort and concentration, but not so much that you tighten up. There is such a thing as trying too hard, and when you do, you prevent all of your natural talent from coming out. A lot of Stark’s work involves getting athletes to relax enough simply to allow all of their natural ability to emerge on the field of play.

At elite levels of sport, there are certainly going to be differences in talent, but they are often so narrow that success frequently becomes a question not of who’s been endowed with more ability, but instead who has the mental ability to put him or herself in that zone time after time.

The true greats in any sport, from Michael Jordon in basketball to Tiger Woods in golf to my current favorite, hockey’s Alex Ovechkin (how about that one-handed goal against the Rangers last night, eh?) don’t earn their reputation on a few great plays. They are great consistently, over long periods, during which most of even their most talented competitors experience ups and downs. These athletes, and Jimmie Johnson, are like money in the bank (with FDIC deposit insurance.) They make game-winning shots, hole tournament-winning puts, score decisive goals, win races and championships with astounding regularity.

Johnson is frequently criticized by fans for having a “vanilla” personality. Those who know him scoff at this notion, but I think fans have it right too. What we see that’s “vanilla” isn’t Jimmie’s personality, however, it’s a “vanilla” response to pressure.

Jimmie can run the biggest races, the biggest laps, as if he’s driving to the store for a loaf of Wonder Bread. It’s not that he doesn’t feel pressure. It’s just that pressure doesn’t affect his performance at all. Have you ever seen Jimmie Johnson rattled? I sure haven’t.

Jimmie Johnson doesn’t like suits and he doesn’t like to speak to crowds. Theoretically he’s just not comfortable doing that. But when he puts on a suit and goes out to accept an honor or award, he looks immaculate and sounds like he should be hosting the Tonight Show. Apparently, the pressure just doesn’t get to him.

• 5 Comments
• NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson, pressure, Alex Ovechkin

News Flash: Jimmie's the Favorite

Let’s say you flip a coin 99 times. Let’s say it comes up heads every time. What are the odds it will come up heads again? Sure, they feel low, but if I’ve got my statistics right, the chances are 50%, just as they are with every flip. It may be highly unlikely that you can flip a coin to heads 100 times in a row, but once you’ve done it 99 times, you’ve got a 50-50 chance of getting to 100. All of which is a roundabout way of saying Jimmie Johnson is still the man to beat in 2010.

It’s tempting to think the “odds are against” Jimmie because he’s already won four NASCAR Sprint Cup championships in a row. Well, the odds may have been against the 48 car winning five in a row back in February of 2006, but 2010 is a new season, a discreet season, and to handicap it we only have to ask one question: who is the best team.

That’s where the last four years do come into play. They prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the 48 is the best all-around team in the garage: best driver, best crew chief, best owner, best team. And it’s hard to see anything that will make them any less dominating.

Some might argue that the change from the wing to the spoiler dims Jimmie’s chances a bit since his last two titles have showed mastery of the current machine. To my way of thinking, however, any significant change cuts in his favor because the team has proven time and again that they are best at adapting to changing circumstances. If anyone will have the spoiler figured out by the Chase, it stands to be Johnson and his team, even if he starts off the season slowly as he did two years ago.

Maybe his imminent fatherhood will be enough to bring the Champ down, as wife Chandra is expecting in July. He’ll probably be smack in the middle of sleepless nights come Chase time. But something tells me Jimmie will get enough rest during race weekend.

And then of course, you’ve got the challengers, some of whom show signs of catching Jimmie. Tony Stewart let the points heading into the Chase last year, he owns two titles, and now that he’s in year 2 with his new team, he should start the year with a much better basis for success.

Denny Hamlin is fond of pointing out that he outran Jimmie in half the Chase races in 2009. He’s much better on downforce tracks than he’s ever been and he finally seems to have both the speed and maturity to contend for a title.

Kyle Busch can’t possibly miss the Chase again, right? And he’s a guy capable of dominating any ten-race stretch of races you can name.

Then of course Jimmie has his own teammates to deal with. Like Stewart, Mark Martin is in year two of his new ride, and he proved last year that he can be a big winner with crew chief Alan Gustufson. Jeff Gordon has won four titles and knows time is running out for number 5.

What about all the guys who are looking to bounce back, especially Carl Edwards who went from nine wins to zero, Matt Kenseth, who was a champion way back in 2003, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., NASCAR’s most popular driver?

Sure any of these guys could beat Jimmie. Each of them could, if everything breaks just right, be a title contender. But only Gordon, Stewart, and Kenseth have done it before. Of course this way of thinking cuts both ways. Four titles in four years don’t count for anything in this season, and Jimmie will have plenty of obstacles to overcome if he wants to make history yet again. And I suppose he can’t win titles for the rest of time.

But for now the year 2010 starts the same way as 2009 ended: With Jimmie Johnson as the man to beat. Good luck to all the teams that are trying.

• 4 Comments
• NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, sprint cup series

Show Me the Money (Less 10%)

Start and parks just got a bit less rewarding.

Denis McGlynn at Dover spilled the beans on Thursday and NASCAR confirmed it Friday morning: purses in each of NASCAR’s three major touring series will go down this season—by around 10%. And although that sounds like bad news at first glance, it’s certainly a concession to current economic reality. It’s also quite possibly a good thing for race fans.

That’s because this move should help the financial position of track owners, like McGlynn’s company, who provide the purse for the race (they also pay a sanctioning fee to NASCAR.) In 2010 tracks will have just as much cash coming in from television (rights fees are increasing just a bit this year, in fact), but ticket revenue will likely be down in many places, for understandable reasons. This cut goes directly to the bottom line.

Smart track owners have already made cuts in ticket prices to keep races affordable for fans. Of course if those cuts can keep attendance from falling too much, that’s certainly in their own interest—you’d rather have a lot of fans paying a little less than a lot of fans paying nothing at all. But now tracks have just a bit more wiggle room—a way to pass on more savings to race fans, who, like everyone else, seem to be still tightening their belts at the moment.

Somebody has to be the loser, right? That would of course be the drivers and the teams who get the purses. Cup drivers generally get take about half the winnings from the race, and with the money most Cup drivers earn these days, it’s hard to feel too much pity for those them. And the major teams make their money from sponsorship, not prize money.

But money not spent is generally money not given to another person in one form or another. If rich driver x makes $400,000 less this season, he has to spend (or save) $400,000 less. He’ll have to get $400,000 less in goods and services provided by somebody else. And don’t forget that race teams employ lots of people who make “average joe” salaries too.

And then there are the smaller teams in the lesser series. Who knows how important that 10% is, say, to a second-tier Truck or third-tier Nationwide Series team. Prize money, even for last place, is enough of an incentive to create the “start and park” phenomenon, where teams start the race with no intention of finishing just to collect the prize money available at the back end of the field.

All in all these cuts aren’t the best thing in the world, but they were probably necessary. It’ll be better when everyone feels flush again.

• 3 Comments
• NASCAR, purses, pay cut, tracks, Start and Park

Junior's Chase Starts in February

Chemistry. Confidence. Those words embody the mysterious side of the mechanical, engineering-driven sport of NASCAR racing. Sure, NASCAR looks like an individual sport, but it’s really one of the ultimate team sports. No driver can overcome a bad team, and no team can make up for a poor driver. More to the point, you can put a great driver with a great team and still fail if everyone doesn’t work together.

Racing seems like it’s all about machines, but in truth it’s really about the people that put those machines together and drive them. At the end of the day, you need to master the human aspects of racing to be successful. Nobody embodies this truth heading into 2010 more than NASCAR’s most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr. Everybody has access to the same parts and pieces, the saying goes, and Junior has the best in the world at Hendrick Motorsports. To succeed he’s going to have to master the human element, both within his team, and within himself.

Junior may be unique in the history of American sport because he is far and away racing’s biggest “superstar” without being anywhere close to the most accomplished on the track. And yet the connection fans feel with Junior isn’t really hard to understand when you spend even a small amount of time around him. He is nothing if not truthful, accessible, and authentic. Race fans identify not only with his family story, they identify with Junior as an individual. They feel like they know who he is and they know where he’s coming from. And they care about him.

That’s a beautiful thing (with the fringe benefit of a healthy paycheck,) but it’s also a lot to carry, a burden that seemed evident last week in Charlotte at the “Sprint Cup Media Tour.” Like all his teammates, and his boss, Rick Hendrick, Driver 88 sported the mandatory white Hendrick shirt and dark pants during the media’s visit to the Hendrick shop. Unlike his comrades, Junior sported a full beard as well—perhaps just a small sign of his individuality. Things aren’t ever quite the same for Junior, and while so many drivers and could speak in giddy tones of “optimism” and “excitement” heading into 2010, Earnhardt was once again pulled into lengthy conversations about the “meaning” and “burden” of being himself. You could almost feel him wondering, “Why does this have to be such a big deal?”

Well, it is a big deal. Like it or not, for better or worse, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the face of NASCAR, one of America’s signature cultural institutions. And his 25th place finish in last year’s standings, even as his teammates swept the top 3 spots, feels like a millstone around his neck. Hendrick Motorsports has made myriad changes this off-season to help Junior to run with his teammates, more closely linking the 88 team with their garage-mates on Mark Martin’s number 5 squad. But this is clearly a human issue. It’s about team chemistry. It’s about personal confidence.

Junior is clearly trying to solve those mysteries right now. Last week he professed never to have had great team chemistry in his career, wondered aloud whether there even was such a thing, and resolutely took a “wait and see” attitude towards 2010: “I’d be foolish to sit here and guarantee you success with how we run last year. We’ll just have to get to the racetrack and see what happens.”

All that adds up to something simple: The first 5-10 (maybe even 3-4) events of 2010 are absolutely critical for Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Success in those first few races will mean that instead of searching for answers, he’s found some. Instead of trying to figure whether he’s trying to hard or not hard enough, he can just show up and drive. Instead of questioning everything, and wondering what it all means, endlessly answering searching questions from the press, he can just go out and have some fun.

But if 2010 starts off the way 2009 ended, it’s going to feel like another lost season quickly, another season of burdens no other driver will be asked to bear, no matter who he is or how poorly he runs.

Maybe it’s a stretch to say it, maybe it’s unfair to say, but I’ll say it anyway: This is make or break time for Dale Earnhardt Jr. The most important 10 races of his career won’t come at the end of 2010. They’ll come right at the beginning.

• 7 Comments
• NASCAR, Dale Earnhardt Jr.

In the Middle of Winter, NASCAR Optimism Reigns

It may be cold and wet outside—at least here in the East—but the middle of winter is the sunniest time on the NASCAR calendar. In January, everybody in NASCAR is an optimist, and everyone’s “excited” about the coming season.

Emerging from this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Media Tour where the assembled press corps met with most of the big players on most of the major teams, it’s hard not to get caught up in all the positive feelings. Jamie McMurray said the media is too negative, but right about now, I’ve got about 25 cars making the Chase, and nobody running poorly. Heck, even NASCAR itself looks like it’s making all the right moves.

Not everything will go this smoothly, of course, but here are the reasons things are looking up for, well, everyone before we’ve run a single race:

Stewart-Haas Racing: One of the big surprises of 2009 was the performance of Tony Stewart’s race team. Tony is certainly one of the top talents in the sport, but most of us thought he would struggle at least a little getting his new team up to speed. Instead Smoke and Ryan Newman both made the Chase, with the 14 car actually leading the points for most of the 26-race “regular season.” But Tony, Ryan, and Bobby Hutchens reminded all of us that the team enters 2010 with some big advantages over 2009. Everyone knows each other. They know how to work together and with Hendrick Motorsports, so the time they spent figuring out some of that basic stuff last year can be spent improving their racecars this time around. Sure, I guess a “sophomore slump” is always a possibility, but the Stewart-Haas team seems poised to improve in the new decade.

Joe Gibbs Racing: Look no further than Denny Hamlin’s Chase performance last year to find optimism in the Gibbs shop. Denny is fond of pointing out that he outran the 48 car in half the Chase races last year. The only thing keeping him from a title would appear to be mistakes and engine failures—eminently correctable errors. And while Denny seems ready for the label “championship contender,” his teammate Kyle Busch has a new crew chief and a new contract. With some of the best equipment in the garage he’s way too talented to miss the Chase again. And Joey Logano, the youngest Cup race-winner in history, now has a full-season under his belt. He ought to improve if only because he knows the tracks better than he did last year, and he should be able to build on a solid rookie season with one of the best crew chiefs in the garage, Greg Zipadelli.

Roush-Fenway Racing: The 2009 campaign was an off year for Jack Roush’s troops, there’s not much doubt about that. But there were signs at the end that a 2010 turnaround is possible for the four-car operation. And Roush has an explanation for 2009 struggles: the team spent too much time looking for a big breakthrough when they should have been optimizing all the little things. Three-quarters of the driver lineup is proven, with Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, and Matt Kenseth having led the series in wins during their careers—not to mention Matt’s 2003 championship. David Ragan will try to get back to his 2008 form with crew chief Donnie Wingo. If a Roush driver wins the first two races in 2010 like Kenseth did in 2009, he won’t end up missing the Chase.

Richard Childress Racing: Here’s another team ready to bounce back in 2010 after myriad changes in the off-season. The team dropped its weak-link when it lost the 07 car of Casey Mears and is now back to the three drivers that made the Chase in 2008. Jeff Burton ran 2nd in the final two races of 2009 and seems to have immediate chemistry with his new crew chief Todd Berrier. Burton’s old crew chief Scott Miller moves into a director of competition role to help all of the teams. Clint Bowyer will move forward with Shane Wilson, and Kevin Harvick will be a free-agent with lots of incentive (his contract status could also be a distraction obviously.) Burton in particular sounded very optimistic, and who am I to doubt him?

Penske Racing: Even though they find themselves as the lone Dodge representative in the garage, Team Penske contends that could be a benefit. After all, they weren’t getting anything from Richard Petty Motorsports last year and now will command all of the manufacturer’s attention. Kurt Busch made the 2009 Chase and even though he lost crew chief Pat Tryson to Michael Waltrip Racing, he found a proven replacement in his brother’s old crew chief Steve Addington. Brad Keselowski has already won a Cup race—granted it was Talladega—and has already shown the ability to run up front. He should be an upgrade over David Stremme. Entering the third season of his Cup career, Sam Hornish should be an upgrade over himself. He feels the pressure to be sure, but isn’t year three when all the open wheel guys are supposed to get it, a la Juan Pablo Montoya.

Richard Petty Motorsports: Last year was filled with turmoil, but Kasey Kahne still had the talent to win two racers and make the Chase. With its move to Ford, the team enjoys a rebirth of sorts and appears to have more of the elements to make a run at a good season, in particular great horsepower from Roush-Yates and technical support from Roush-Fenway Racing. AJ Allmendinger has gone through hell to get where he is, but he had some great runs at the end of last year in a Ford. AJ has proven he’s mentally tough, and he finally gets to start the year as an established driver with a guaranteed starting spot and a full-time ride. Elliott Sadler has something to prove, and he gets to return to the manufacturer for whom he showed all that promise a few years ago.

Michael Waltrip Racing: Michael Waltrip is a little bit different, and so is his race team. They refused to use the word “excited” on the media tour, but they took a huge step forward last year after struggling mightily in 2008. David Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose threatened to make the Chase before finishing 16th and 18th in the points, and then Michael upped the talent level at his team by stepping out of the NAPA car in favor of Martin Truex Jr., who has already made the Chase once in his career. Truex will get Pat Tryson, who has led two different drivers into the Chase, as his crew chief. And when the plate races role around, two-time Daytona 500 winner Waltrip will put himself back behind the wheel.

Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing: Despite rumors last season, Teresa Earnhardt and Chip Ganassi didn’t break up after last season. Instead they plan to build on the breakthrough season of Juan Pablo Montoya who proved he has the talent to run up front during a remarkable Chase that saw him finish in the top 5 five times in ten races. Montoya clearly understands the cars now, and he doesn’t take a back seat to anyone in the talent department. The team lost Martin Truex, but replace him with Jamie McMurray whose best years came racing for Ganassi. Jamie wasn’t a good fit for the data-driven Roush-Fenway team, but this is probably his last chance at a primetime ride, and he better drive like it.

Hendrick Motorsports: What’s not to like with the team that finished 1-2-3 in the points last year? The sport’s best driver lineup is intact from 2009, and the one weak link on the team, the 88 and driver Dale Earnhardt Jr., received considerable attention during the off-season. A closer relationship with the 5 team should help Junior, and a return to the spoiler won’t hurt. It’s tempting to say that rule change might hurt the other teams, who seemed to have the winged-machine figured out, but Hendrick has proven time and again they are the best when it comes to adapting to change. Jimmie and Chad have won four in a row, but they’re just as hungry as ever to feast on their rivals. And they know how to use the regular season to set up the Chase better than anyone.

NASCAR: The year 2009 started off with economic shock-waves reverberating everywhere. It was a lot for NASCAR to deal with on the business side, and on the race track the hoped-for love affair with the car of tomorrow never really materialized, despite constant reminders of how safe the car was and how close the racing was. To its credit, NASCAR took a good hard look at itself through the eyes of the competitors and fans and decided to make some changes. The wing is gone if favor of the spoiler, and the sanctioning body has pledged to stop micro-managing (my word, not theirs) the drivers on the race track. NASCAR racing is all about cars and drivers living on the edge—and sometimes going over it. If NASCAR really does let them do it, 2010 could be a breakthrough season.

How’s that for optimism??

• 5 Comments
• NASCAR, Off-season, race teams

All Aboard the NASCAR Freedom Express!

"Just hold on loosely, but don't let go. If you cling too tight babe, you're gonna loose control."
--.38 Special

Who hasn’t wanted to start their blog by quoting a .38 special song, my friends? It's been a lifelong dream, and thanks to NASCAR, I’ve finally got my chance.

Think about all the rule changes we’ve heard about in the past week: changing the wing to the spoiler, eliminating the yellow line rule, an end to policing bump-drafting . . . None of this will be official until next Thursday, but most, if not all of this stuff is going to happen. So what in the name of Brian France is going on here??

Remember this time last year? NASCAR made a point of saying they were going to let the drivers express their personalities. In 2009, they were going to let them speak. This year, they’ve taken the next step: to paraphrase spokesman Ramsey Poston, “We’re going to let the drivers drive.” All aboard the freedom express, baby!

For many years NASCAR’s instinct, as it is with most big corporations, has been to assert more control, not less. They embraced their role as rule-maker and enforcer. If they saw a problem, they tried to come up with a solution. That’s fair enough, but so many of the solutions—restrictor plate, pit road speed limits, yellow line, car of tomorrow, bump draft policing—have taken options away from the drivers and teams. Not all of these rules have been bad, of course, but they were always flirting with the “law of unintended consequences.” And a lot of fans felt, rightly or wrongly, that the sanctioning body was slowly taking away what made NASCAR, well, NASCAR.

Now NASCAR seems to be headed in the other direction. Certainly they’re not abandoning their role as Johnny Law, but maybe they’ve realized that you just can’t fix everything by exerting more control. And maybe they’ve also realized the most fundamental rule of all: The essence of NASCAR racing is being on the edge—and if the cars and drivers are truly on the edge, sometimes they’re going to go over it. NASCAR can’t—and shouldn’t—try to legislate that out of the sport. No wrecks, no tempers flaring, no mechanical “innovations” . . . no NASCAR.

That brings me to the one area that I think could still use a little more freedom from NASCAR: the racecar. With the new car, NASCAR has put teams in a smaller box, giving them fewer ways to change the car. The thought was that by limiting what teams can do, you’d bring more parity to the sport.

If you look at lap times, there is indeed more parity. But if everyone is closer in speed, with fewer options to improve—or screw up—their car, then it becomes harder to pass. It’s almost like making football games closer by eliminating the forward pass. Sure, the games might be tighter, and you’d have fewer blowouts, but they’d be a lot less exciting too.

Maybe in 2011 NASCAR can take their hands off approach one step further, and give the crew chiefs just a little more room to work too—let them open up their playbook a little bit. As it is, I applaud NASCAR for the changes they seem to be making. Who knows, maybe this freedom thing will catch on.

• 9 Comments
• NASCAR, Yellow line, spoiler, bump-drafting, .38 Special

NASCAR Plays the Spoiler

It was the middle of August in Michigan, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., in the midst of a season long slump, was asking for changes to the car formerly known as the “Car of Tomorrow: “We need to open our eyes a little bit. . . . I think NASCAR could probably be a little more urgent in improving our product. The ultimate result is great, exciting racing that the fans will enjoy. That should be our quest always, even when things are good. I feel like especially right now, we need to really, really try to turn over every stone."

At the time, NASCAR president Mike Helton attributed the comments of NASCAR’s most popular driver to frustration: “I think Dale Junior’s comments are driven by the fact that he'd like to have more adjustability in the car to get it to where he can do better on the racetrack.” And although Helton indicated minor tweaks were being considered, there were to be no major changes to the car for the 2010 season. “I make the argument that the racing we've got on the track is as good as I've seen in a long time. A reaction from us could interrupt that.''

Something has clearly changed.

On Thursday ubiquitous NASCAR spokesman Ramsey Poston told the world that indeed the sanctioning body was “currently meeting with drivers and owners to discuss a number of options. Going back to the spoiler is one of them under serious consideration.”

Replacing the current wing on the car with a spoiler is no minor tweak. It’s a major change in how the rear of the Cup car produces downforce and the turbulence it creates—which in turn affects how other cars handle. It might invalidate thousands of man-hours of research the teams have done to figure out the car as currently configured. And although it’s certainly not a done deal, I think Poston’s phrase, “serious consideration,” is an indication this may well happen, and that teams need to be prepared.

Leaving aside the question of whether or not this is a good idea (personally, I think they’d be crazy not to at least consider it given the quality of racing on downforce tracks these days) you’ve got to wonder why the change of heart.

There are some conspiracy theorists out there, like professional goofball Buck Fever, who think the reason is indeed Dale Jr. He asked for a major change, Buck argues, and now he’s going to get it. We can’t have our most popular driver running like hell two years in a row, can we?

Although it’s interesting to consider what might be happening now if Junior, not Jimmie Johnson, had won the last Cup title (perhaps leading to an increase in TV ratings instead of a decline) I’m just naïve enough to think NASCAR’s not making changes to benefit just one driver. The reverse conspiracy, I suppose, would be that NASCAR is trying to hurt Junior’s team, Hendrick Motorsports, whose other drivers finished 1-2-3 in the points. Maybe NASCAR wants to shake things up and stop Jimmie from winning five championships in a row. But ask youself this: which team in the garage is best at adapting to changed circumstances? Personally, I think it’s the 48, and it’s not even close.

There are also those, like the lugubrious Buzz Cutler, who assume NASCAR is going back to the spoiler because it doesn’t like to see cars airborne at Talladega. But although a spoiler would not create lift like a wing does when the car turns around, I’m fairly confident there would have been other ways to engineer your way around that particular issue. That’s a big change for just 4 plate races a year. And Poston specifically denied that was the reason.

I think NASCAR realizes they need better racing on the downforce tracks and they’re considering ways to get it. And although they did test a “spoiler version” of the car before going to the “wing version,” they now have lots of positive feedback on the Nationwide COT, which features a spoiler on the same chassis as the Cup car (there are some other important differences, however.) They may also have a general sense, like most race fans, that the racing was better back when the car had a spoiler on the back.

Most of all, I think NASCAR isn’t satisfied with the status quo because the race fan isn’t satisfied with the status quo. There’s no way of knowing, if they do indeed make this change, what the result will be. It’s a risk. But this is no time to be conservative and there’s no time to waste. Dale Jr. was right in August in Michigan when he said “especially right now, we need to really, really try to turn over every stone."

• 7 Comments
• NASCAR, spoiler, wing, Car of Tomorrow, Dale Earnhardt Jr., mike helton

Driving Junk

As I watched Jim Zorn, the late lamented coach of my favorite football team, walk the plank in the wee hours of Monday morning after yet another miserable Redskins season, I couldn’t help but think he didn’t have much of a chance to succeed. He reminded me of a racecar driver who’s given a slow car and then blamed when he can’t get to the front. He reminded me of a guy who’s driving junk.

Evaluating a driver is one of the hardest things to do in sports. What he (or she) can accomplish depends not only on his own talent, commitment, and intelligence; it also depends on his equipment. In sports like basketball, baseball, and hockey, one player might not be enough to turn a loser into a winner, but it’s not hard to see who the good players are, even if they’re on a bad team.

In football, individuals are much more dependant on their teammates. No matter how talented a player is, he’s still just a piece of a puzzle. (Are you reading this, Dan Snyder??) Without a scheme that suits his talents, the right game plan, and talented teammates, a good player can be basically taken out of the game by the opposition. That’s why in football, it’s much more common for players to change teams and go from “horrible” to “great” (Steve Young being my favorite example) or “great” to horrible.” But even though it may take more experienced eyes to see it, a football player’s talent is still on display for the world to see.

A driver’s ability can be completely hidden if he’s driving junk. Racing may look like an individual sport from the outside, but it’s actually the ultimate team sport because of how dependant the driver is on his car and the people that build it.

But the difficult question isn’t how to figure out if you’ve got a good driver. That’s actually simple. If a guy runs up front and wins, he’s good. Jimmie Johnson may have top equipment and the best crew chief in the garage. But he’s outrunning his own teammates as well as a bunch of other guys year after year after year. He’s proven he’s the best driver.

The real tough question is how do you know if your driver isn’t good enough. If he struggles it might be because his team isn’t giving him a machine he can win with. If he’s a younger driver, it might be because he needs more time to understand the racecar and the tracks he’s running on. If he’s an older driver, it’s possible he’s lost something—although most guys get written off far to early. And then again, it’s possible he’s just not good enough to get it done.

• 4 Comments

Jimmie Gets His (and Our) Due

Jimmie Johnson is the Associated Press male athlete of the year.

It’s about time!

According to the Wikipedia entry, the AP started giving the award out in 1931, with baseball player Pepper Martin (remember him? I didn’t think so) getting the first one. Since then a lot of baseball and football players have received the award. The only hockey player to ever win was Wayne Gretzky (although the 1980 US Olympic hockey team won too). No basketball player won the award until Larry Bird in 1986, but Michael Jordon won it three years running in the early 90s.

Boxing and track and field were covered early on when legends Joe Louis and Jesse Owens won in 1935 and 1936. Plenty of golfers, from Gene Sarazan to Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, and of course Tiger Woods (3 times—although Jack Nicklaus never was so honored!). Swimming? Check. Tennis? Check. Cycling? Lance Armstrong won four in a row. Even a jockey, Steve Cauthen in 1977, has been named male athlete of the year. A jockey! But until now no racecar driver, neither Petty nor Earnhardt, Foyt nor Andretti, has won the award.

So when Jimmie Johnson was finally recognized, it felt a little bit like NASCAR itself was finally getting its due. Despite a huge increase in exposure in the last decade, there are still tons of general sports fans that don’t understand or respect NASCAR.

You can start with the perception that the driver isn’t an athlete at all, since he’s “just driving a car.” But ten laps behind the wheel of any race car—even at a speed so low that you wouldn’t even knock the snot out of your nose if you stuffed it in the wall—would be enough to cure most skeptics. Most humans simply don’t have the hand-eye coordination required to control a car precisely at that speed with such powerful forces exerted on their body. Most don’t have the powers of concentration to do it four three to four hours with 42 other cars around. Most don’t have the sensitivity to understand exactly what the car is doing around the track. And most certainly don’t have the stamina or strength required to perform all those tasks in 110-degree heat.

Then there’s the criticism that racing is “just cars going around in a circle.” Well, it is . . . to the same degree that baseball is “just hitting a ball with a stick” or football is “just running with a ball and getting knocked down” or swimming is “just swimming.” Any sport sounds silly reduced to a one-sentence description like that, and any seasoned race fan can tell you there’s plenty of action, drama, and strategy in even the least exciting NASCAR race. Just like most things, however, you’re not going to understand it if you don’t invest the time. (Of course going in person helps too.)

So thanks, Jimmie, for winning the award. It fees like you won this one for all of us.

• 10 Comments
• NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson, Male Athlete of the Year